Real estate research predicts what new construction homes will look like twenty years into the future based on historical housing trends.
Hello, central air conditioning and two-car garages. Goodbye basements and fireplaces!
A recent real estate study from Porch analyzed census data from 1999 through 2016 to forecast new construction home building trends in the future. So, what housing trends can Americans look forward to enjoying?
According to the research, homes will get bigger and lots will get smaller by 2036. The average home is predicted to span 3,000 square feet (up from 2,000 in 1999) on a 25,000 square foot lot (down from 31,000 in 2016). Cost will rise with size and the average home price will hit $305,000 (up from $198,000 in 2016), but I think this prediction is wrong. Average home prices are already at $285,000, so if growth is at 2 percent for 18 years, by 2036 homes will be a little over $400,000. I’m more interested in how the value of homes will fluctuate over the next few decades, but value isn’t a metric measured in Porch’s study.
(These are average lot sizes, and as everyone in the real estate industry knows – as do folks who actually live in these places – there are cities and towns where setback requirements are nonexistent and homes are located on lots that might be just 5,000 square feet big.)
Lot size may be smaller, but these new homes will be big and built to last. More than 40 percent of homes will be made with fiber cement siding. It’s more expensive than the vinyl alternative used in more than 33 percent of homes built in 1999, but it’s also significantly thicker and much more durable. In 2006 fiber cement siding was used in less than 1 in 10 homes so if Porch’s analysis holds this trend will see massive growth in the next 20 years.
The interior of new construction homes will make the most of its 3,000 square feet. Nearly 60 percent will have two stories and a two-car garage (28 percent will have three-car garages). Almost 75 percent will have three or four bedrooms. Most homes will have either two or three full baths (because what’s a bedroom without its own master bath?) with only 0.3 percent of new construction homes having one or less. Most homes will have a porch or a patio, but decks (along with basements and fireplaces) will be relics of the past. All new construction homes are anticipated to run on central air conditioning and 62 percent will have heat pumps.
How will future homes be bought? 58 percent will be purchased with conventional loans, but FHA home loans are predicted to rise in popularity. FHA loans make owning a home more accessible to millions of potential buyers since they have lower down payments and easier approval ratings.
Studies that attempt to glimpse into the future are fascinating and fun, but none of this is written in stone. There’s no telling what’s actually going to happen in the next 20 years, but if Porch’s predictions hold it looks like we’re going to have energy efficient homes with plenty of room for growing families to fill.
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